Half-brotherly love
Why Kim Jong Un’s brother was murdered
from The Economist
Kim Jong Nam was attacked by two women assumed to be North Korean agents a Malaysian airport. He is said to have died on his way to hospital
Rumours suggest that Mr Kim was poisoned. Six people might have been involved in the attack
The 45-year-old Mr Kim had once been Kim Jong Il’s favourite son. Before each birthday, diplomats would be sent on a month-long present hunt
But it was Kim Jong Il’s third son, Kim Jong Un, who succeeded their father in 2011. Kim Jong Nam was not visible at his father’s funeral
Kim Jong Un has consolidated power by executing about 140 senior officials. As a political irrelevance, Mr Nam had seemed likely to survive
Some says Jong Nam had conspired against his brother with executed Jang Song Thaek whom Jong Nam had been close to in his school days
Jong Nam might be involved in financial dealings like money laundering through Macau’s casinos or simply irritate Jong Un by criticising him
Jong Nam was thought to be under the protection of China which had had good relations with Jang and would have seen Nam as useful leverage
North Korea allegedly had been trying to kill Jong Nam for some time. But there is no hint his murder is a sign of turmoil within the regime
| 2017/02/25
| Politics
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Fairway friends
Japan’s prime minister meets Donald Trump—again
from The Economist
Last November, Mr Abe jumped on a plane and went to meet Mr Trump. It was Mr Trump’s first meeting with a foreign leader after his election
This time, he will bring a plan to create jobs in US by building rail links, decommissioning nuclear power plants, using JP’s pension fund
Mr Abe wants to try to bag a bilateral deal with Mr Trump who has made positive noises, which could salvage some of the substance of TPP
The explicit return for JP’s investment will be US’s commitment to defend JP includes the disputed Senkaku islands
Abe is hoping to bond with Trump over a golf like his grandfather who played golf with Eisenhower 3 years before they signed security treaty
Cosying up to a leader many Japanese distrust is a political risk for Mr Abe and will also further alienate China
| 2017/02/16
| Politics
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Russia and America
Donald Trump seeks a grand bargain with Vladimir Putin
from The Economist
Mr Trump appears to want to forge a new strategic alignment with Russia. Will he be the third American president to be outfoxed by Mr Putin?
As Mr Trump’s ambassador to the UN offered condemnation of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, he was protective toward Mr Putin
Mr Trump is miscalculating not only Russian power and interests but also the value of what America might have to give up in return
Mr Trump seems to think US would team up with Mr Putin to destroy IS and curb Chinese expansion
Russian hacking may have helped Trump at the polls, but that does not mean he can trust Putin. Russia’s interests and US’s are worlds apart
Mr Putin’s price for working with US could be to secure RU military presence in the ME. But US and RU forces cannot easily fight together
RU is not about to confront Iran which is a promising market for RU exports and a neighbour to work together to manage the ME
RU is far weaker than China, with a declining economy and population and a smaller army
Putin’s 3 wishes: the lifting of Western sanctions; the recognition of his seizure of Ukrainian territory; US’s connivance in weakening NATO
Mr Trump seems not to realise scrapping US’s anti-missile defences in Europe and halting NATO enlargement would be gigantic concessions
Mr Trump, betrayed and angered, will end up with a dangerous and destabilising quarrel with Mr Putin
Mr Trump should improve US’s relations with RU like arms control with Congressional Republicans, Mr Mattis or Mr Tillerson
| 2017/02/16
| Politics
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In a spin
Japan’s government has legalised casinos, but they are not popular
from The Economist
Over ¥23trn ($203bn) is waged annually on pachinko. Pachinko players spend more than the combined betting revenue of all casinos in Macau.
Only 12% of JP citizens supported the legalisation of casinos in Dec. Critics said it would exacerbate problem gambling and attract yakuzas
The construction of casinos could generate ¥5trn in economic activity with another ¥2trn a year from increased tourism.
Foreign casino-operators began lobbying. Bureaucrats are crafting legislation to decide how many resorts to permit and where to put them
Investors fear outbreaks of NIMBYism. In a recent survey 75% of Japanese said they would not like a casino to be built near their homes.
The government wants to double the number of visitors come to JP by 2020, along with the roughly ¥3.5trn that tourists spend annually.
Japan faces regional competition from Macau, Malaysia and Singapore. What will give the country an edge is Japanese culture, or onsen resort
Most Japanese are “emotionally” against casinos and will need to be convinced
| 2017/02/07
| Politics
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A Trump White House
The 45th president
from The Economist
MUCH of the time, politics matters little to most people. Then, suddenly, it matters. Trump’s term stands to be one of those moments.
We know little about what Mr Trump intends. Mr Trump promises to be an entirely new sort of American president. The question is, what sort?
There is evidence from the team he has picked, which includes a mix of wealthy businessmen, generals and Republican activists.
Mr Trump is changeable. But that does not mean that you must always shut out what the president says and wait to see what he does.
Trumpian optimism on display among American businesspeople may deserve to be tempered by fears about trade protection and geopolitics.
After the election, S&P500 index reached record highs, reflecting hopes that Mr Trump’s cutting corporate taxes might lead economic boost.
If his reforms are poorly executed, there is the risk of capital chases that do little to enhance the productive potential of the economy.
Fast rising prices will cause the increase of interest rates. Soaring dollar will harm both emerging countries with dollar debts and US.
Just as Mr Trump underestimates the fragility of the global economic system, so too does he misread geopolitics.
His mistake is to think that countries are like businesses. America cannot walk away from China in search of another superpower to deal with
For as long as Mr Trump is unravelling the order that America created, he is getting his country a terrible deal.
How will Mr Trump’s White House mediated by Mr Trump’s daughter and son-in-law work?
The world is on edge. From the Oval Office, presidents can do a modest amount of good. Sadly, they can also do immense harm.
| 2017/01/24
| Politics
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